The International Energy Agency, whose role we described in a recent Peak Oil post, have this week come out with rather bleak figures in its World Energy Outlook 2007 -- a 600-page report forecasting worldwide future energy demands (the table of contents alone is 27 pages). In essence, they've put firm figures to projections that common sense had already anticipated - that rather than the needed decline in energy consumption over the next few decades, the world's appetite for energy is only just getting... er... warmed up.
The report bases its 'reference scenario' (indicated by the red line in the graph below) on the premise that international governmental policies remain as they are today. As you can see, the IEA report predicts that in this 'business as usual' scenario energy consumption worldwide will continue its upward trend - potentially breaching a 57% increase over 2005 figures by the year 2030. Almost half (45%) of this growth is projected to come from the rapid growth of demand from developing China and India (although, of course, we need to recognise that much of that growth is being caused by western consumption).
“WEO-2007 demonstrates more clearly than ever that, if governments don’t change their policies, oil and gas imports, coal use and greenhouse-gas emissions are set to grow inexorably through to 2030 – even faster, in fact, than in last year’s Outlook. These trends would threaten energy security and accelerate climate change. - IEA Press Release
The 'High Growth Scenario' indicated in the graph above assumes that China’s and India’s economies grow on average 1.5 percentage points per year faster than in the Reference Scenario. The 'Alternative Policy Scenario' is the predicted situation for 2030 if governments immediately implement policy changes that are presently being considered - still bringing a 27% increase in emissions over 2005 figures.
The IEA also calculated a fourth scenario - called the '450 Stabilisation Case' - which is the energy agency's attempt to find a solution to the above runaway energy consumption and to level CO2 emissions off at 450 parts per million (ppm), a figure that has semi-arbitrarily been decided by scientists as the upper concentration limit for our atmosphere before dangerous runaway feedback loops would become highly likely.
In a “450 Stabilisation Case”, which describes a notional pathway to long-term stabilisation of the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere at around 450 parts per million, global emissions peak in 2012 and then fall sharply below 2005 levels by 2030. Emissions savings come from improved efficiency in industry, buildings and transport, switching to nuclear power and renewables, and the widespread deployment of CO2 capture and storage (CCS). Exceptionally quick and vigorous policy action by all countries, and unprecedented technological advances, entailing substantial costs, would be needed to make this case a reality. - IEA Press Release
The '450 Stabilisation Case' requires global emissions to peak in 2012, then drop dramatically. This is ironic, considering the IEA also, again, hints at a peak oil energy crunch that may make at least part of the above reduction in energy consumption compulsory and impending, rather than a much-delayed voluntary option:
Coal is expected to see the biggest demand increase than any other source of energy, increasing from having a 25% share of the global energy mix in 2005, to 28% in 2030, and electricity use is expected to double (World Energy Outlook 2007: Fact Sheet, Global Energy Demand - PDF).Although production capacity at new fields is expected to increase over the next five years, it is very uncertain whether it will be sufficient to compensate for the decline in output at existing fields and meet the projected increase in demand. A supply-side crunch in the period to 2015, involving an abrupt escalation in oil prices, cannot be ruled out. - IEA Press Release
Although China recently overtook the U.S. as the largest CO2 emitter on a per-country basis, China’s per capita emissions are still a fraction of their western counterparts. The IEA, however, predicts that China is on track to reach current European per capita levels by 2030 (World Energy Outlook 2007: Fact Sheet, CO2 Emissions - PDF), which will make for a totally astronomical total national emissions level. By 2030 the top five CO2 emitters are projected to be, China, U.S.A., India, Russia and Japan, in that order.
Although I think the IEA's report is timely and valuable, I'm not convinced they are in the best position to be proposing specific solutions. Their 'fixes' are all based on maintaining the status quo as much as possible by continuing to beat the dead horse that is our current globalised economic model. Relocalising our economies is not on the IEA's list of options, and some of their suggestions, like Nuclear and Carbon Sequestration have major inherent risks involved - particularly when you consider that these technologies would need to be applied globally, including within developing countries that have, like western nations, a well-documented history of prioritising profit over people and their environment. End-use and industry efficiencies are all extremely important, as is a major shift towards renewable energy options, but it doesn't take a rocket scientist to calculate that these alone will never be sufficient to offset our economic inefficiencies, and, indeed, can - as I expressed in another post - just serve to make us extremely efficient at destroying this planet we call home.
Additionally, the IEA is aiming at leveling emissions out at 450ppm - a dangerous concentration to seek to 'settle on'. If the number of dramatic weather events we've witnessed over the last few years is anything to go by, then leveling out at 450ppm is essentially resigning ourselves to continual loss of life, diversity and the multi billions of dollars that will continue to get funneled into aid, reconstruction endeavours and military investment due to social upheaval and migrations.
The World Energy Outlook 2007 report will no doubt become yet another ingredient to the complex mix that is our upcoming Bali summit.
Further Reading:
