The United States has been the largest emitter of greenhouse gas emissions and the largest obstacle to the creation of a binding, international agreement to limit emissions to scientifically based levels. However, this year we might see a change in both of those positions. Various agencies and analysts state that China has become the largest emitter of carbon emissions or will by the end of next year. The United States will be neither the largest emitter or even even in the top 5 of largest per-capita emitters (that dubious honor rests with the people of Australia, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait: Source).
Simultaneously, a sea-change is happening in the United States. There was a flurry of coverage on Global Warming after the release of Al Gore's documentary, An Inconvenient Truth, but many predicted it would die down after a while. Instead, salience of the issue is going up and is haltingly entering into American political discourse in a meaningful way. Step It Up launched the effort on April 14th, with the largest demonstration on Global Warming in American history (even if far, far smaller that the original Earth Day) and it paid off with the rise of the Climate Primary, the Townhall: Climate hosted by MoveOn in partnership with LiveEarth, and the rise of the youth climate movement – with the launch of the Power Shift 2007 national youth summit on global warming solutions.
The events, this weekend, are going to bust through the glass ceiling of what is politically possible in the United States. Mass public involvement in Step It Up 2, a diverse and incredibly vibrant youth climate movement, and the 1 Sky campaign by grassroots groups around the country are going to shock political observers who thought they had the issue all mapped out. I read in The Politico, a Washington DC 'insider' rag, how the issue pitted Big Green and Faith Groups against Big Steel, Concrete, Oil, and Gas with Big Aluminum on the sidelines. Well, it is no longer the big green NGOs that are in this fight, it is now a huge slice of the American public. It is the country's future leaders, people of faith, people of color, and parents who want to build a prosperous, safe, and sustainable future for their children.
This expansion of the climate movement, as breaking out of the box of what is 'environmental', is already running into obstacles on Capitol Hill. The main legislative mechanism to address global warming is the Lieberman-Warner bill, a 'bi-partisan' creation of Sen. Lieberman I-CT and Sen. Warner R-VA. The bill exemplifies the politics-as-usual that have defined this issue, with a weak bill that favored polluting industries over the American public and green NGOs lining up to push mildly for it to be stronger. However, a few groups are starting to realize the zeitgeist is changing...and fast. Friends of the Earth and even Sierra Club are pushing for stronger, better, and more fair. But the turning point will not come with this bill.
I believe the turning point will happen at Bali, when the world will see a United States ready to take on the challenge of global warming as a leader, not an obstacle. The United States is a proud nation and hopes to be exceptional, number one, and will be the biggest obstacle or the biggest leader...but chafes at anything in-between. The UN climate conference in Bali is shaping up to be the most consequential climate conference since the creation of the Kyoto Protocol. Leaders from the United States, such as Sen. Kerry and Boxer, Chairman Markey, and the Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi are coming to show another face of the United States. Youth leaders, like the US youth delegation to Bali, and the organizers of Step It Up are coming to show that the next generation of Americans get it and are acting now, already, in their campuses, their cities, and their states.
Change rarely comes linearly, something we have learned with trepidation from climate science where sudden changes can bring catastrophe, but it can also bring hope. There have been sweeping changes in public opinion, media coverage, and the grassroots organizing around global warming in the United States. We may be approaching the climate tipping points, but a political one in the United States hopefully lies even closer.
