Last week John McCain outlined his plan to fight climate change. In doing so he broke from President Bush’s orthodoxy of inaction and outlined a new conservative line on climate change. The speech has since been analysed and critiqued extensively. But in the end it may be that it wasn’t what McCain said, but what he chose not to, that will matter. The New York Times reported that:
In the prepared text of his speech, e-mailed to reporters on Sunday night and Monday morning, Mr. McCain went so far as to call for punitive tariffs against China and India if they evaded international standards on emissions, but he omitted the threat in his delivered remarks.
Whether he meant to or not, John McCain introduced the idea of carbon-tariffs into the 2008 Presidential election.
It’s not just America we have to worry about though - the idea of carbon tariffs seems to be gaining traction across developed countries. At an EU summit in March there was mention ‘appropriate measures’ to protect European industry from unfair competition from countries without emissions reduction commitments. India has already warned of retaliation and litigation should the EU impose these restrictions on trade. It is now common for political-insiders to refer to ‘the coming carbon-trade wars’.
In this light McCain’s comments may be understood as a new form of carbon-nationalism. Most countries are now agreeable to acting on climate change, but old habits die hard in international relations. Moving towards a model of enlightened cooperation, rather than misplaced carbon competition, presents obvious difficulties, especially if you are the Republican candidate for President.
It goes without saying that retaliatory action by China or India could have devastating consequences for the climate. Like it or not we seem bound to a liberal-environmental global regime that works by utilising international trading mechanisms. Alienating major developing countries would render the Clean Development Mechanism obsolete and destroy the goodwill necessary to facilitate the transfer of clean technologies across borders. One can only hope that John McCain continues to stray from his climate-conservative script, otherwise the US might just start another war.
