Richard Welford
And the growth of the world’s youth population (ages 15 to 24) is shifting into the poorest of those countries.
The new Population Reference Bureau's 2009 World Population Data Sheet, offers detailed information about country, regional, and global population patterns.
In the context of CSR, I find it interesting that we talk a lot about the environment and its connections with growth and we discuss at length the use (and abuse) of natural resources and links to climate change.
Yet, one of the major challenges that businesses could play a role in relates to birth control and population management.
In countries such as the Philippines there is a huge debate about this issue and interestingly it is business that is sometimes opposing the Catholic Church in advocating birth control and family planning.
The initiative recognizes workplace programs that have integrated demographics and socio-economic interrelationships in the formulation of development plans, policies and programs.
Yet, elsewhere we have not adequately recognized the role that business might play in trying to get to grips with a sustainable population.
The new report points out that even with declining fertility rates in many developed countries, world population is still growing at a rapid rate. The increase from 6 billion to 7 billion is likely to take 12 years, as did the increase from 5 billion to 6 billion.
The projection for population growth in developing countries assumes that fertility in those countries will fall to the same low levels as in today's developed countries, around two children per woman.
That might be over-optimistic.
The rapid growth in populations in developing countries over the last few two decades has resulted in huge increases in young people. Not surprisingly, the great bulk of today’s 1.2 billion youth (nearly 90 percent) are in developing countries.
Eight in 10 of those youth live in Africa and Asia and during the next few decades, these young people will continue the current trend of moving from rural areas to cities in search of education and training opportunities, gainful employment, and adequate health care.
Population change will shape the prospects of regions and countries over the next half century. Future population growth will be almost entirely in the developing world, with the fastest growth in the poorest countries and regions.
During the 20th century, nearly 90 percent of population growth took place in countries classified as less developed (LDCs), that is, all countries in Africa, Asia (except Japan), Latin America and the Caribbean, and Oceania (except Australia and New Zealand).
This remarkable development resulted from an unprecedented decline in death rates in LDCs brought about by the spread of public health measures, health care, and disease prevention.
The report says that the geographic imbalance in population growth seen over the last century will only intensify in the years to come. Between 2009 and 2050, virtually all population growth will take place in the LDCs.
About one in five people, over 1.2 billion people, are between the ages of 15 and 24. The United Nations estimates the world’s median age to be 28.9. By 2050, it is projected to be 38.4.
But interestingly, what the report stresses are the interconnectivities between population growth, development, investment, education, access to employment opportunities and even climate change.
Although the world is aging, the proportion of the population between 15 and 24 in LDCs will continue to be higher than in developed countries.
Most developing countries have young populations because of high fertility and improvements in child survival.
But as fertility rates decline and young populations grow older in many LDCs, a bulge in the working-age population with fewer children and elderly to support may provide benefits.
This “demographic dividend” can bring improvements in society by allowing more investments in education, technology, and skills to support a growing economy; encourage more targeted investment in health care; and increase economic output because more people are working.
With the right investments in health, education, rural agricultural development, entrepreneurship, and training, a large youth population can be an opportunity for development and economic growth, says the report.
However, without educational opportunities and a strong economy with healthy labor markets, the youth bulge can be problematic. The lack of job opportunities for youth in many countries breeds frustration. Recent unrest China, for example, has all been at least partly due to a lack of opportunities for young people.
Since 1950, the greatest gains in life expectancy at birth occurred among women. In more developed countries, average life expectancy for women rose from 69 years in 1950 to 81 years in 2009, while the average for men rose from 64 years to 74 years.
Worldwide, men have higher mortality and greater disability than women. In nearly every country, men die at younger ages. However, women spend about 15 percent of their lives in poor health, compared with about 12 percent for men.
Population growth is one root cause of increases in global greenhouse gas emissions.
But the complexity of the mechanisms through which demographic factors affect emissions is not fully taken into consideration in many analyses that influence governments’ climate change mitigation efforts.
For example, reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change include future scenarios where each member of the population is assumed to contribute equally to emissions; thus, population growth affects emissions.
It is well known, however, that levels of greenhouse gas emissions depend on consumption and production patterns and that these patterns vary across populations. Changes in the composition of populations will affect global greenhouse gas emissions.
Better climate change scenarios also depend on knowing how population composition will change over time.
Research on population and climate change has identified three demographic trends that will affect global emissions: urbanization, declining household size, and population aging.
Thus it is clear that population is very much part of the sustainable development debate and even impacts on contemporary challenges such as climate change. And there must be a role for business (particularly in LDCs) in encouraging responsible family planning and birth control.
In many cases companies already engage in a range of health initiatives for their staff and it would not be difficult to add-in education related to birth control. Moreover, as the report recognizes, population issues are deeply tied up with economic development, access to education and employment opportunities and here business is central to contributing to healthy economies where birth rates are easier to control.
But there really now has to be a debate about population growth and the impacts it is having on us being able to attain a more sustainable future. Fast growing economies, with fast growing populations (such as we have in Asia) are hardly a recipe for sustainability.
This new report reminds me that the issue of population really ought to feature more highly in CSR initiatives than it has done to date.
This article was originally posted on the CSR Asia website.
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Population management is really a very tough task as it requires the management of all the people living in each and every city of a state.
Written in August 2009