With the Bali summit, there were high hopes, but low expectations. Our hopes are being dashed, quite possibly along with our futures - but few, if any, are taken by surprise with the wholly inadequate responses we're seeing so far from the world's 'leaders' in Bali. From afar, at least, it seems more like a childish squabble over who gets the biggest slice of cake than an objective, situation-appropriate and adult response to a tragically serious environmental disaster in the making.

On the eve of the summit, we endeavoured to draw some lines in the sand in regards to our present situation. But only a week later, and with only two more days of the summit to go, evidence of escalating climate change just keeps pouring in. I'll share below a few more reports released over the last week.

2007, whilst not quite over, looks like it's on track to be the second warmest on record, just behind 2005. This is from a December 10 report from NASA's James Hansen and his team:

Through the first 11 months, 2007 is the second warmest year in the period of instrumental data, behind the record warmth of 2005, in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) analysis. The unusual warmth in 2007 is noteworthy because it occurs at a time when solar irradiance is at a minimum and the equatorial Pacific Ocean has entered the cool phase of its natural El Nino – La Nina cycle. - GISS 2007 Temperature Analysis through November (PDF)

The GISS analysis shares a few interesting charts. The red zones below indicate areas where temperatures are between 2-3°C higher than normal. The brown areas 3-3.8°C higher. As you can see, the arctic regions are warming far faster than anywhere else.

Global map of surface temperature anomalies for first 11 months of 2007

This makes the following breaking news all the more believable:

Arctic summers ice-free 'by 2013'

Scientists in the US have presented one of the most dramatic forecasts yet for the disappearance of Arctic sea ice.

Their latest modelling studies indicate northern polar waters could be ice-free in summers within just 5-6 years. - BBC

Professor Maslowski said that "previous projections had underestimated the processes now driving ice loss", exactly what James Hansen told us back in June.

The loss of ice you can see in the pictures at right is nothing short of phenomenal.

The long-term average minimum, based on data from 1979 to 2000, is 6.74 million square km. In comparison, 2007 was lower by 2.61 million square km, an area approximately equal to the size of Alaska and Texas combined, or the size of 10 United Kingdoms. - BBC

Arctic ice reflects sunlight, so the less we have, the less reflection. Conversely the increased dark ocean cover absorbs more heat, leading to the runaway ice melt effect we're seeing today. Think of the ice cube in your gin and tonic - the smaller it gets, the faster it melts.

"The implication is that this is not a cycle, not just a fluctuation. The loss this year will precondition the ice for the same thing to happen again next year, only worse.

"There will be even more opening up, even more absorption and even more melting.

"In the end, it will just melt away quite suddenly." - BBC

Ice thickness is diminishing as well. Professor Peter Wadhams from Cambridge University says that "The ice is thinning faster than it is shrinking..."

It doesn't stop with just sea ice - melting of the Greenland ice sheet is also well underway. Another report from yesterday states:

The Greenland ice sheet melted at a record rate this year, the largest ever since satellite measurements began in 1979, a top climate scientist reported on Monday.

... The extent of the melt area was 10 percent greater than the last record year, 2005, the scientists found.

Greenland is about one-fourth the size of the United States and about 80 percent of it is covered by the ice sheet. One-twentieth of the world's ice is in Greenland; if it all melted it would be equivalent to a 21-foot (6.4 meter) global sea level rise, the scientists said. - Reuters (see also)

Meanwhile, back at Bali - a tourist resort centre that is itself under threat from rising sea levels - while it is not exactly 'every man for himself', there appears to be enough division in thought to keep the negotiation process from hammering out anything substantial. In fact, Yvo de Boer, from day one, seemed resigned to these meetings only setting a framework for future post-Bali negotiations (i.e. they're talking about how they want to go about talking about it over the next two years...) - despite the business, science and public communities hoping that this last year's accumulated scientific findings - indeed, even just eye-witness observations - would instill a sense of urgency and expeditious action.

The U.S., a country that should be, but isn't a key player in the negotiations, says it's not ready to commit at Bali. As the saying goes, you only need one bad apple in the box....

While acknowledging the science, the US argues for voluntary agreements rather than a global system of binding cuts, and argues that the text coming from the Bali conference should not contain numerical targets. - BBC

This, and a reluctance to share clean tech technologies with developing nations, is causing China, the other big, and, apparently, otherwise cooperative kid on the block to get despondent:

China is disappointed by progress at climate talks where it feels some rich countries are shirking their responsibilities to cut emissions and help poorer nations tackle global warming, delegation members said.

The Chinese team has been applauded by other delegations and activists for its cooperative attitude, but says its proposals to do more in return for help with clean technology have foundered amid squabbling over who is responsible for rising temperatures.

"I am a bit disappointed there is still this continuation of talk about what everyone should contribute, and particularly what the emerging economic powers like China should contribute, but there is virtually no progress on the key areas of financing and technology transfer," said a delegation source.

"Expectations are high, the whole world is focusing on Bali and what we were hoping to see is some real progress on tough issues," he told Reuters.

... "The developed countries must take their responsibilities seriously. We must have the 25 to 40 percent target," [of reductions by 2020] said a source with close ties to the delegation.

"If they won't agree to this, if they won't even do this, then what hope is there?" - Reuters

At the moment it does seem like the delegates may come away with little more than a tan and an increased carbon footprint (see also), but with two days of the conference to go, let's not give up hope or go vigilante quite yet.

The dedicated and earnest Ban Ki-moon today urged leaders to come to the party, sharing his view that the only thing lacking was political will. He requested that the United States display some flexibility, and a willingness to take some responsibility for its historical emissions - and emphasised that politicians need to have respect for the science upon which the whole summit is based.

UN chief Ban Ki-moon on Wednesday demanded a breakthrough from the Bali talks on framing an answer to climate change, but weary negotiators admitted this goal seemed elusive.

Environment ministers or their stand-ins from more than 180 countries have until Friday to agree a framework for tackling global warming past 2012, when pledges under the Kyoto Protocol expire.

"If we leave Bali without such a breakthrough, we will not only have failed our leaders but also those who look to us to find solutions, namely the peoples of this world," Ban said.

"This is the moral challenge of our generation. Not only are the eyes of the world upon us. More important, succeeding generations depend on us. We cannot rob them of their future." - Yahoo!UK

Update: Communication Breakdown at Bali