A few months ago, I saw a bumper sticker that said “Where are we going and what am I doing in this hand basket?” Last week, the BBC had a chilling graphic representation of population growth, increasing ecological footprint and rate of carbon emissions, and decreasing land and water supplies. All I could think of when I looked at it was, boy are we f****d! And while the good news is that we’re more prosperous than ever before, the bad news is that we are using that prosperity to consume ourselves into annihilation.
The latest United Nations Global Environmental Outlook (GEO-4) is bleak. With 572 pages, 388 scientists from across the disciplinary spectrum and an additional 1,000 scientists reviewing the report - the conclusion is that the earth’s natural environment is in decline in almost every area and that human beings will be widely effected.
Here, in Southern California, we've just had some of the worst wild fires in history, in Atlanta they are about to run out of water and in the African countries bordering Lake Chad, which has shrunk by 90% in the last 45 years, it is readily apparent that we are already affected. A fire chief was recently asked if global warming has contributed to the intensity of fires. Not only did he tell the reporter absolutely, but he said that you won’t find much doubt among firefighters about it. GEO-4, however, is about much more than climate change, it is also about issues of forestry, clean water, biodiversity, agriculture and the spread of desert land, all events that are caused by or exacerbated by climate change. It also examines socio-economic disparity and population growth and their effects on the environment. And in almost every area that the 1987 World Commission on Environment and Development’s “Our Common Future” report was meant to get the world to start addressing, we have moved the wrong direction in these last 20 years.
This leads to the conclusion that while a minority may be more prosperous financially for the short term, it is at the cost of the environment. Continuing on this path of environmental degradation is soon to cause a reverse in our prosperity, too. And yet, sustainable development remains a catch phrase and not a way of life. According to the UN Environment Program (UNEP), there is a “remarkable lack of urgency” when it comes to reversing these trends.
On the positive side, there has been a slowing of deforestation in the Amazon, the air in Western Europe is cleaner and globally, we have curbed the destruction of the ozone layer. But these positive indicators are few and far between compared with the number of overall indicators that show the world’s ecosystems to be in decline. Furthermore, it appears that most governments and societies still remain uncommitted to addressing these problems. This lack of urgency is all the more surprising when you consider that this devastation will reverse many of our global advancements as we reach peak soil, peak oil, peak water, peak fishing, peak air, etc.
According to the report:
- Many farming systems have reached their limits of production
- Warmer temperatures and ocean acidification threaten food supplies
- 1.8 billion people face water shortages by 2025
- 3 million people die annually from water-borne diseases, mostly children under five
- Three-quarters of marine fisheries exploited to or beyond their limits
- Exposure to pollutants causes 20% of disease in developing nations
- Pollution being "exported" to developing world
- About 60% of "ecosystem services" are degraded
- Fishing is nearly four times the rate of what is sustainable
- Arable land (particularly in Africa) is becoming unusable
- More people than ever before lack enough clean water
- Greenhouse gas concentrations have risen
- The loss of biodiversity is accelerating
- At current rates, we will see an increase in temperature of up to 4 degrees Celsius this century
This assault on the global environment risks undermining the many advances human society has made in recent decades.... It is undercutting our fight against poverty. It could even come to jeopardize international peace and security. - Foreword to GEO-4 (PDF)And UNEP head, Achim Steiner points out that this downward trend in ecosystems and the continued increased demand for resources is not only unsustainable, but is already having repercussions in parts of the world. In Africa, land degradation exacerbated by climate change and conflicts pose the largest threat. In Asia, air pollution is the major threat to life. Europe is threatened by over consumption and overuse of carbon-based energy. Latin America faces massive social inequality and deforestation. The Middle East is plagued by wars, poverty and growing water scarcity. And in North America, rising carbon emissions, urban sprawl and water shortages are the biggest concerns.
The sad truth is that we do have solutions, we simply aren’t willing to apply them with the exigency needed - to make the changes in consumption that would allow us to live in a sustainable manner. Many hope that GEO-4 will bring about this sense of urgency in terms of protecting the world’s ecosystems. Considering the rate of decline and that we are half-way through the time period during which we were to have reached the Millennium Development Goals, it is beyond depressing to realize the lack of action. It is actually scandalous. After all, we have known for decades now that it is in all of our interests to reverse the downward trends in order to insure our own survival, yet we continue to act as if there is no immediacy to it, as if we will have a future in which to clean up this mess. I greatly fear that GEO-5 will tell us that we don’t.
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