Today was the day one of the Bali Climate Change Convention, the crucial two-week meeting of almost 200 nations to discuss the next steps in fighting climate change. Day one featured a major announcement from Australia, speculation on U.S. action, and opening statements that may foreshadow the results of the meeting.

Cherry-picking from the coverage of Bali Day One, here is the first installment of "Dispatches from Bali":

Australia's brand new Prime Minister ratifies Kyoto Protocol

With the first major news story of the day, Kevin Rudd, newly elected leader of Australia, signed the Kyoto Protocol and garnered praise from all around.

"Kevin Rudd's hand trembled slightly but his voice was strong as he was sworn in as Australia's 26th Prime Minister after sweeping to power in elections last month.

His first act as leader was to sign the Kyoto Protocol on climate change, which had been a key election pledge." - Voice of America

The U.S. now stands alone

After Australia's landmark decision to ratify Kyoto, the U.S. appears to be the only remaining industrialized country to have avoided an international climate agreement.

From David Roberts of Gristmill:

"Ever since I was hired at Grist, I've been writing that every developed nation supports the Kyoto Protocol 'except the U.S. and Australia.' Guess the U.S. really is all alone now. I feel so proud." - Grist

Not true, David, not true.You forgot about Lichtenstein. Boy, that was a close one….we were almost alone there.

What will happen in Bali? Pessimism and disenchantment:

Not everyone (in fact, very few people) seems to be optimistic about the outcome of Bali (see the poll we took on the subject, at the bottom of the page)

"…expectations for Bali are low, and were being managed downwards before the meeting. 'Disappointment may come in a variety of different guises,' said an official. Those, like the European Union (EU) and activist groups, who want a global deal are not even looking for a road map for the post-2012 era.

They will be happy if they manage to stop America, OPEC or the developing countries creating serious roadblocks. It is not surprising that Bali is unlikely to achieve anything tangible, for it is aimed at the hardest part of climate-change mitigation: getting an international agreement which all the big emitters ratify. That won't happen until America adopts serious domestic emissions-control measures." - The Economist

Business community urges aggressive action at Bali

"In an unprecedented show of solidarity, leaders from 150 global companies endorsed the idea of a legally binding framework in a statement published in the Financial Times newspaper.

Some of the world's largest firms -- including Coca-Cola, General Electric, Shell, Nestlé, Nike, DuPont, Johnson & Johnson, British Airways and Shanghai Electric -- said that the scientific evidence for climate change is "now overwhelming" and that a legally binding agreement "will provide business with the certainty it needs to scale up global investment in low-carbon technologies." - Washington Post

My (partisan) translation:

Dear U.S. Bali delegation,

We represent over 150 large, international for-profit companies. We never agree on anything, and we rarely make a stand on political issues. But we all agree on this.

Can you hear us?

Sincerely,

The Business Community

Should avoided deforestation count for carbon credits?

Some of the more technical issues have come up as well.

"In terms of the carbon market and how to form the role of developing countries in the future model, the issue of deforestation is likely to rise amidst the scant policy talks. Several countries with lots of forests - such as the host, Indonesia - intend on raising deforestation as a candidate for entry into the carbon markets, allowing developed countries to buy offsets by paying forested countries not to deforest. As a reporter on NPR this morning explained, as controversial as it is to pay for someone to not do something, there are so many other major points to debate that their deforestation proposal may meet few objections." - Climate Progress

And the million-dollar question: What will the U.S. do?

As we've noted before, the most pressing issue in Bali is what kind of accord will emerge (if any), and whether the United States will be a part of it. Yes, China and India are crucial countries as well (and it's encouraging to see a joint accord from China and the EU), but it is absolutely crucial that the U.S. join the rest of the world in committing to binding emissions reduction targets.

So what will the U.S. do?

Some say, not much.

"As for US participation, we're certainly not getting any sign of change in Washington. The one bright spot for this round of UNFCCC meetings is that in addition to its usual representative, the U.S. is also sending James Connaughton, Chairman of the Council on Environmental Quality. He is the highest ranking official that Bush's Administration has sent to international climate negotiations." - Climate Progress

"American delegates at the U.N. climate conference insisted Monday they would not be a "roadblock" to a new international agreement aimed at reducing potentially catastrophic greenhouse gases. But Washington refused to endorse mandatory emissions cuts, which are seen by many governmental delegations at the meeting as crucial for reining in rising temperatures." - Houston Chronicle

"India and China have already said they won't do anything that curbs their industrial and economic development. And as we reported in November, if China doesn't sign on, the Bush administration won't either." - Wired

"The U.S., the only developed nation to reject the emissions-limiting Kyoto treaty, will be 'very open and flexible' in assembling a new climate accord, its chief negotiator said, refusing to rule out caps on greenhouse gases. 'We don't want to start off with anything here in the beginning of the process that will prejudge what might be concluded in 2009,' U.S. senior negotiator Harlan Watson told reporters on the Indonesian island of Bali. Delegates from 187 nations are meeting on Bali to discuss a successor to the existing Kyoto Protocol, which expires in 2012." - Bloomberg

Sounds good. However, the article continues:

"Bush administration officials last week reiterated their preference for voluntary caps, saying nations should be free to determine their own emission curbs through about 2025." - Bloomberg

So things are not looking too good, but don't give up yet. There are 9 days of negotiations remaining, and almost anything could happen. So keep watching the news, and hope for the best.