I think it would be helpful if we talked more about 'climate variability' rather than only 'climate change'. The idea of unpredictable and varying shifts in temperature, rainfall, sea level, storms and other big weather events might go somewhere towards dispelling the myth that climate change will make our summers more pleasant.
But in addition, 'climate variability' reminds me that the changes we're facing climatically are experienced differently around the world, with different countries more susceptible to storm surges, rising sea levels, floods, hurricanes, drought and extreme temperatures. A joint World Health Organization, World Meteorological Organization and United Nations Environment Program report lists the most profound global impacts of climate change to be greater risk of death, injury, ill health and starvation in relation to heat stress; reduced agricultural production; rising sea-levels; extreme weather events; increased risk of skin cancer and increased transmission of vector-borne disease (WHO, WMO, UNEP, 1996, Climate change and human health). While these are global risks, effects will be felt disproportionately by more vulnerable countries; those with high levels of poverty and where large numbers of people rely directly on resources from their local environment for day-to-day survival.
The different impacts of climate change around the world are likely to result in the creation of 'environmental refugees', people who are displaced by environmental factors. According to the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies, more people are now forced to leave their homes because of environmental disaster then because of war (World Disasters Report 2001). Norman Myers of Oxford University projected as far back as 1993 that at conservative estimates, climate change will increase the number of environmental refugees six-fold over the next fifty years to 150 million ('Environmental refugees in a globally warmed world', Bioscience, Vol.43, No.11).
What is easier to forget is that the effects of climate change will also be experienced differently within communities depending on the level of vulnerability people face – factors such as poverty, social exclusion, dependence on natural resources, poor health and limited access to support services. This social and environmental inequality within communities is by no means limited to developing countries, as we saw so tellingly in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina in the United States.
The differing projected impacts of climate change within countries, states and local communities deserves more study. Where I live, in Melbourne, Australia, Friends of the Earth has recently released a study (PDF) focusing on the projected direct and indirect effects of climate change in the state of Victoria and the likely impacts these will have on low-income communities.
Some of the high-level main findings include:
Agriculture, food and water – The increased water restrictions, agricultural instability and crop failure related to climate change are likely to increase the cost of food and water. With less ability to absorb cost increases, low-income earners could face malnutrition, health problems and increased stress as a result. Rural communities may also face declining income, unemployment and migration due to projected decreases in agricultural production.
Energy – Projected increases in energy demand and energy costs will place stress on low-income households, with unemployed people, large families, solo parents, young people, and those with disabilities or chronic health conditions particularly at risk of fuel poverty. People with limited access to public transport services will also be disadvantaged by rising fuel costs.
Human settlements – The most at risk settlements in Victoria include areas where people are dependent on industries vulnerable to climate change impacts (such as agriculture and tourism); coastal communities; and indigenous communities (due to poor housing and infrastructure).
Employment – The increase in unemployment and the number of low income earners projected would be likely to overwhelm Victoria's social support sector and the government budget's ability to support people at the same time as juggling competing costs of climate change adaptation.
Health – It is expected that health risks for low-income families will increase in frequency and intensity. Direct impacts of climate change could include increased spread of disease, more temperature-related deaths, and more death and injury due to extreme weather events such as bush fires.
The report contains interesting detail and case studies of Victorian impacts and has a useful list of recommendations for government, industry and the community sector in Australia. But it's main message is that in the face of uncertainty at the scale of impacts climate change will have, we need to take into account those who will be most vulnerable within our communities, as well as internationally.
Those more exposed to climate factors, sensitive to change and less able to adjust will need more support. As well as support, those most adversely affected by climate change should also be involved in the design and implementation of solutions in order to ensure equitable health, well-being and sustainability of all people and their environments.
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