This week leaders from throughout the Asia Pacific region are gathering in Sydney, Australia for the annual meeting of the Asia Pacific Economic Co-operation grouping, APEC. Prior to President Bush arriving in his private jet on Tuesday night, Sydney was locked down in elaborate security protection, enforcing strict no-go zones for Sydneysiders with steel barricades and new police powers. The disruption is turning the APEC acronym into a verb, with many Sydneysiders reportedly claiming they are "APECed off" at traffic snarls and delays.

Despite the inconvenience for locals, the annual meeting of APEC leaders is an important event. For one, it's the only regional organisation that brings the United States, China and Japan together around a single table each year. Secondly, the 21 APEC economies represent 60 percent of global GDP, with the associated greenhouse gas emissions that entails. But perhaps most importantly for this year's meeting, Australia's Prime Minister John Howard has made climate change a high priority agenda item at APEC.

Everybody seems to be joining the climate change party, noting how important the discussions on climate change will be, and hinting at new agreement and action from APEC leaders. Earlier in the year Howard even hyped APEC by claiming it would be a more important meeting than the Rio Earth Summit for the world's environment.

The focus on climate change and the presence of China and the US at the meeting is significant for Australia. John Howard has long-claimed that no progress on climate change can be made without China's involvement; a logic that has been dragged out repeatedly to justify Australia not ratifying the Kyoto Protocol. So leading up to negotiation of a post-Kyoto global climate change agreement, the bilateral meetings between Australia and China this week are set to be the most significant bilateral talks at APEC, with regional security, energy security and environmental security the three main areas for discussion. The Australian hinted that the talks "will hold the key to the strength of any final declaration on climate change from the group's 21 members" (The Australian). But the challenge of achieving progress in environmental security was reflected in the priorities of China 's President Hu Jintao in touching down in Australia. Before meeting with Australian political leaders, the President first met with mining giants in Western Australia to discuss mineral trade with China. Western Australia currently supplies 40 percent of China's iron ore, with China its largest export market and second-largest trading partner. Today, Australian's WOODSIDE Petroleum announced it has signed the largest export deal in Australian history, selling up to $45 billion worth of LNG gas to China from 2013.

In addition to the important bilateral, one-on-one and trilateral meetings between leaders such as Howard and Jintao, there's likely to be a whole lot of jockeying for position at meetings of senior officials, business leaders and Ministers. Despite the climate change banner, already there are signs of jostling between different agendas, with some pressing for strong emissions cuts targets while others barrack for improved energy efficiency, technology development, unimpeded economic growth, and equitable and flexible approaches for different countries.

Australia's Prime Minister John Howard

The Howard Government has been promoting the idea of improved energy efficiency ahead of the summit, urging members to sign up to a 25 per cent target for increasing energy efficiency across the Asia Pacific by 2030 (The Australian). Some argue the focus on energy efficiency is an attempt to deflect attention away from strong emissions reduction targets. Kevin Rudd, Australia's opposition leader, has been quick to pick this up, calling on Howard to get real about climate change. "If he's real about climate change, he'd ratify Kyoto and adopt a carbon target for Australia" Rudd challenged yesterday (The Australian). With John Howard likely to announce the federal election soon after APEC, it seems he's relying on the meeting to convince Australians that he's serious about acting on climate change. Given Howard has denied climate change is happening and moved to reduce Australia's emissions at a barely visible pace over his eleven year term, APEC will need to deliver some convincing action to convince Australia that he's a friend of the global climate.

As APEC begins, despite the presence of many of the world's major emitters, my feeling is that it's unlikely APEC will result in an agreement that goes far enough in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Instead, the emphasis looks set to be on achieving an aspirational goal from all APEC members.

While this is frustrating in the face of the need for urgency, APEC may be the warm up before the real event. Discussions between the 21 APEC leaders will hopefully advance the issues to be discussed at the UN General Assembly in New York on September 24th, and further the consensus at the climate change conference in Bali in December.

Malaysia has reflected this view coming up to APEC, stating concern that climate change and the push for a post-Kyoto agreement will hijack the APEC forum. There are a number of other commentators who agree, arguing that emissions targets should be negotiated in Bali in December and not at APEC. Tim Flannery, Australian of the Year and author of The Weather Makers, said yesterday that "there is a critical need for a good, strong, coherent international treaty that everyone's part of and there's only really one game in town for that, which is the Kyoto meeting" (The Australian).

Protests - a traditional APEC event

On his arrival in Australia President Bush claimed that APEC "is a summit of nations that share the same values, same concerns about the world in which we live" (The Australian). Given the purported unity, it will be interesting to see how far APEC leaders will go on setting targets for acting on climate change. I'll be keeping my eye on the action (and you can follow it here), including the protests planned for Friday, and will make another post on outcomes at the end of the APEC summit.

Hopefully the twee practice of dressing leaders up in identical shirts at the end of APEC will be more than a photo opportunity this year, and will to help shape the strong and unified international action on climate change we and the global climate need.