Climate change, it seems, will force migration on a scale never seen before. A few days ago I was in the pleasant surrounds of the British Library where climate luminaries discussed and debated an issue that is increasingly urgent.
Professor Norman Myers, who had concluded in 2005, that climate change could displace as many as 200 million people, or one in every forty five on the planet, asked that the assembled crowd of delegates and distinguished greybeards not 'get so hung up with what can be counted that you miss what actually counts', urging immediate action to address the issue. The truth is we don't know how many people will be forced from their homes. But we do know that this would be a terrible thing.
Mohammad Adow, a representative of Northern Aid Kenya, provided an alarming example of the scale of change already taking place. In a region where there have been four major droughts in the last ten years, two million people are now dependent on food aid. As the severity of droughts increase, that number, he said, is predicted to rise to five million.
Traditionally forced migration occurs as a result of national and international conflict. Speakers highlighted an alarming variety of potential flash-points for climate related conflicts, including: North Africa, where up to 75% of arable land could be lost; Israel, where water supplies are decreasing, and Bangladesh, where much of the country will likely soon be under water. Lydia Poole, a former United Nations field officer in Sudan, also outlined how the current conflict in the region has been exacerbated by changes in climate.
The loss to those forced to move also needs to be better understood. Neil Adger of the Tyndall centre noted how human identity is often bound to a sense of place. Loss of habitat and livelihood would be accompanied by similarly devastating cultural effects.
It is also worth considering how people in the developed world might react to new flows of migrants. New conflicts may arise and nationalism and anti-immigrant sentiment are likely to increase, adding another dimension to the problem. Not so long ago a colleague at a philanthropic organisation revealed he had been asked to fund a high-intensity laser, designed to forcibly dissuade a wave of climate migrants from entering Britain.
Unsurprisingly international action was pinpointed as a means of minimising the adverse impacts of forced migration. Hillary Benn, UK Secretary of State for Environment, suggested altering the purpose of the World Bank to include a distinct focus on financing mitigation and adaptation. The general consensus among those present was that increased investment from existing international institutions is necessary. Benn quoted former US president Teddy Roosevelt, stating that 'I have a perfect horror of words that are not backed up by deeds'. Deeds are now needed from everyone in the developed world.
