Investment in green technology must not only continue but increase dramatically if the world is to ameliorate human-induced climate change. But the messages charting progress are mixed, to say the least.
For every new project touted as being the next best thing to save the planet, it seems there is another would-be saviour dropping off the radar - or at least under it.
While economic stimulus packages are supposedly all well and good, and increasingly seek to contain incentives for green tech, the institutions receiving help are, to date, showing a distinct reluctance to pass on support to green innovators.
Take renewable energy. It's a field which, alone, could mitigate up to forty percent of human-induced climate effects if we switch completely from dirty technology such as coal and gas-fired plants.
On the one hand, we have luminaries such as Yvo de Boer, executive secretary of the UN climate convention, excitedly telling a Globe International meeting in London that the detail in economic stimulus packages being unveiled around the world shows that governments are taking the environment seriously.
He cited US President Barack Obama's plan which aims to double capacity for alternative sources of energy like wind, solar, and biofuels over the next three years, and China's 10-point plan, unveiled in November, which will target more than $100bn at increasing efficiency, expanding rail networks and "environmental improvements".
Mr de Boer claimed these developments were signs that governments were using the economic troubles as a window of opportunity for reforming their economies. "The high emissions, debt-driven, resource intensive model is dying," he said. "The impacts of climate change would put the final nail in its coffin."
"Climate change is still widely treated as an environmental problem. Yet it is imperative that climate change be treated as a key element of any economic strategy," de Boer says.
Other speakers at the Globe event were less impressed. Anders Wijkman, a Swedish European Parliament Member, said they were not bold enough to drive the transition to a green economy, citing the dilution of the EU's climate and energy package during December's European Council summit as an example.
"Half of the 20% (reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2020) can be done through offsetting," he said. "If the ultimate goal is to bring emissions down to zero, then this just postpones the day of action."
But at the same time as the Bush Administration has been found to have paid about $78 billion more for financial assets than the assets were actually worth, and banks and companies continue not to properly account for the bail-out funds they've been receiving, the amount of this money flowing through to new green projects appears to be drying up to a trickle.
Wind and solar power generation has boomed in recent years, but because of the credit crisis the opposite is now happening: except in certain markets like China, the pace of installations is slowing and in some cases plummeting.
Industry manufacturers in the US are announcing lay-offs, and trade groups are projecting between 30 and 50 percent declines in installation of new equipment this year. Prices too, for turbines and solar panels, are falling.
Why? Mainly because whereas 18 major banks and financial institutions were financing wind turbines and solar arrays before the crunch, despite generous tax incentives that number is now down to four. Similar effects are starting to be felt in Europe.
''There are examples of smaller developers and independent power producers, relying on banking finance, that are affected by the general reluctance of banks to provide liquidity,'' Christian Kjaer, chief executive of the European Wind Energy Association, wrote in an e-mail message. ''This may postpone some of these projects.''
This against a background of scientists claiming it may be easier than expected to reduce emissions - so long as sufficient upfront money is ploughed into renewables now.
And certainly there is no time to waste; in order to meet the consensus goal of holding CO2 levels at a maximum 450 parts per million, greenhouse gas emissions must be cut by at least 50 percent by 2050. Given they've actually risen world-wide in the 20 years since Kyoto (when they should have gone down) that timeframe is far shorter than it looks.
Elsewhere UN chief Ban Ki-Moon warned a climate conference in India that all countries must work towards a "conclusive carbon emissions reduction" deal at an international climate change conference in Copenhagen in December which will debate initiatives when the Kyoto Protocol expires in 2012.
"Copenhagen must clarify commitments of developed countries to reduce their emissions," said Mr Ban. "We must also achieve clarity on what mitigation actions developing countries will be prepared to make. In Copenhagen we must now bring all this all together in an ambitious, comprehensive and ratifiable agreement."
But the only progress to emerge from the UN's climate conference in December concerned the management of the Adaptation Fund, which gathers money to help poorer countries protect their societies and economies against the impacts of climate change.
Developing countries won easier access to money from a 2% levy on carbon trading under the UN Clean Development Mechanism, which aims to fund projects that reduce greenhouse gas emissions in developing countries, meaning that adaptation money can begin to flow at some point next year.
But the current level of funds - about $80m - is far lower than will be needed, and rich countries refused to expand the levy.
"It is not clear how a 'strong political signal' can be sent by not paying for pollution that you have caused," said Pakistan's delegate Farrukh Khan in response. "We would have hoped that our partners would have taken this necessary step on the road to Copenhagen; but unfortunately the road to Copenhagen is being paved with good intentions."
That comment could, it seems, equally be applied to banks' performance in failing to support green tech from the bail-out monies they have received. If the world wants real progress to come from this crisis, governments will have to get much tougher with financiers to make it happen.
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ChicagoGeek via Flickr
