If you're reading this, it means you like food enough to stay alive and breathing, so following on from yesterday's post about The Rise and Predictable Fall of Globalized Industrial Agriculture, now we'll hear a little from Richard Heinberg on this critical topic. Richard Heinberg, a man we've featured before, is a peak oil expert and activist, who, as opposed to politicians and the industries that support them, advocates a concerted, thoughtful, intelligent reduction in fossil fuel consumption - and "at a forced pace" - to avoid an impending and severe many-faceted global social crisis.
Richard recently lectured at a Soil Association meeting in Westminster, London, UK, talking about the implications of a peaking in oil extraction for food production and distribution.
An apocalyptic vision of how the world will look after the oil runs out has been given by a top scientist.You can read the full transcript of the lecture (145kb PDF), or listen to the podcast (101mb MP3). If you do nothing else today, I'd urge you to listen to the podcast (Note: if you want to skip the introductions, drag the slider straight to the six-minute mark).Richard Heinberg, one of the world's leading experts on oil reserves, warned that the lives of billions of people were threatened by a food crisis caused by our dependence on dwindling supplies of fossil fuels.
Higher oil prices, the loss of farmland to biofuel crops, climate change and the loss of natural resources would combine with population growth to create an unprecedented food shortage, he claimed.
The only way to avoid a world food crisis was a planned and rapid reduction of fossil fuel use - oil, coal and gas - and a switch to more organic methods in the growing and delivery of food. It would mean a return to living off the land not seen for 150 years.
The stark predictions were made by Heinberg in a lecture to the Soil Association in London.
... The UN Environment Program had concluded that the planet's water, land, air, plants, animals and fish stocks were all in "inexorable decline" much of it due to agriculture, which constituted the greatest single source of human impact on the biosphere.
Heinberg said that to get to the heart of the crisis a comprehensive transformation of world agriculture was needed - greater than anything seen in many decades - which would produce a system that was not reliant on fossil fuels. - Telegraph
Richard gives some extremely interesting background on our agricultural history, how its development has contributed to a burgeoning population, and how both have in turn brought us to the vulnerable predicament we're in today.
As have we (here & here), Richard mentions the example of Cuba, who in many ways are the litmus test for peak oil for us all - an historical microcosm of our global future. When the USSR collapsed at the end of the 1980s, Cuba's oil supplies dried up almost overnight. Cuba was plunged into instant poverty and distress. So, what did they do? Listen to the podcast, and learn.
Richard speaks about how increased fuel costs will make relocalisation a necessity - as food transport will become economically unviable. In a world where global food swaps are the norm, this will take a major social shift to redevelop local communities to ensure adequate quantities and variety in food supplies.
Climate change is perceived as being at the top of the critical environmental concerns list. If looked at in isolation of other converging energy and environmental issues, however, politicians and industry will seek to supply narrow 'solutions' - many of which, like biofuels for example, may merely exacerbate our situation for the short-term benefit of a very few. I hope that some of the information we share here will help to broaden the view on the issues we're dealing with - the convergence, or collision, of consequences if you like, that we either face up to and prepare for, or that will inevitably take us and our families by surprise.
For good measure, I thought I'd throw in a clip posted on YouTube one year ago. It's interesting to note the prices for oil he speaks about at the time, and his predictions for a continued rise - particularly as oil prices are hovering between $90 and $100 a barrel today.
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