The Bush Administration and the U.S. youth climate movement are both holding major climate change-related events this week. In fact, they're holding events on the same days. This Wednesday and Thursday, January 30-31, we will see the capstone meetings for Focus The Nation, the voice of American youth environmental activism, and the Bush administration's climate change team.

But which one matters? And which one should we look to in the hopes that it will affect our nation's stance on climate change?

You might think that the government meeting will result in substantial action, while the powerless youth will succeed only in convincing themselves further of what they already believe. But, I'm guessing, you will be wrong. Rather, I am predicting that the Administration meeting will be fruitless, whereas the youth event will help grow a movement with real influence. These meetings show an important distinction between the collective power of youth climate activism and the relative impotence (or at least, deliberate inaction) of the U.S. government.

The White House Council on Environmental Quality will hold its second "Meeting of the Major World Economies" on climate change on January 30-31 in Hawaii. The first of these meetings was held in September 2007.

According to the CEQ press release,

The two day meeting will further the shared objectives of reducing greenhouse gas emissions, increasing energy security and efficiency, and sustaining economic growth, and will help to advance the negotiations under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. -- AFP

The exclusive invitation list reads like a who's who of big polluters: Australia, Brazil, Britain, Canada, China, the European Union, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, South Africa, South Korea and the United Nations have all been invited to send delegates.

Though press releases from the first meeting paid lip service to the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, nothing of substance emerged from the event. Indeed, there was no declaration of intent, no public goals, no action whatsoever. Why not? Because action was not the intent of the Bush Administration. Just the appearance of intent to act was enough. The lack of action did not go unnoticed by the international press, though. The Independent called the event a "greenwashing climate summit," and wrote this in preparation for the event:

For the first time in 16 years, a major environmental conference opens in Washington, hosted by the Bush administration. But no concrete results are expected, and that -- say European participants -- is the point of this high-level meeting.

Far from representing a Damascene conversion on climate change by President George Bush, the two-day gathering of the world's biggest polluting nations is aimed at undermining the UN's efforts to tackle global warming, say European sources. "The conference was called at very short notice," said one participant. "It's a cynical exercise in destabilising the UN process. -- Independent

And very little has changed. At the last UN climate conference in Bali, Indonesia, the U.S. delegation used the upcoming Major Economies meeting as an excuse to completely avoid committing to specific greenhouse gas emission targets. However, the stated goal of the Major Economies meeting is to begin setting long-term goals for tackling global carbon emissions (WBCSD).

This is like attending an event for charity, but announcing during the event that you have decided not to contribute to the charity that day. Rather, you will hold a smaller, more exclusive event designed to raise money for the exact same charity. Of course, in truth you have very little desire to make a contribution, but by announcing your own event you display the appearance of caring and you can maintain your social status.

Recognizing this, a number of European nations threatened to boycott the Major Economies meeting when the U.S. refused to commit to binding targets in Bali. However, in the interests of compromise, that goal was dropped, and the invited E.U. countries will be attending this week (after all, who could turn down a trip to Hawaii?).

So what should we expect from this week's Major Economies meeting? Not much. Expect similar self-praise from the administration, continued chiding from overseas, and no change in U.S. climate change policy.

At the first World Economies meeting, the State Department passed around a handout with three "myths" about the U.S. and climate change:

Myth: The president refuses to admit that climate change is real and that humans are a factor. Myth: The U.S. is doing nothing to address climate change. Myth: The United States refuses to engage internationally.

Think what you want about the first and third myths, but I am here to agree with the State Department on the second. Although the U.S. government is doing relatively little to address climate change, there is a growing contingent of young climate change activists who will undoubtedly shape our future.

On the same days as the Bush administration holds its meeting, the national youth climate movement will hold two events of its own: a teach-in, in the model of the 1960s Vietnam protests, and a solutions webcast. These meetings will be a call to action from the people who will control our country before long, hopefully soon enough to avoid the worst of climate change. See the second part of this series for more on the people who really will make a difference in U.S. climate change action.