You know how it goes in family squabbles. One member doesn't see eye to eye with another, the wise elders try to pour logic and reason onto the flames of controversy, but if ignored then the disagreement intensifies until there's a full-blown feud underway. People standing by, from an outside perspective, roll their eyes, wring their hands - unable to figure out why they don't just put their petty differences aside and work together - but to no avail.

On the penultimate day of talks, this seems to be where we're heading with the Bali summit. After a week of polite disagreement, wooing and then desperate but diplomatic pleading, now the dark horse in this little domestic dispute, the US, is defiantly standing with clenched fists and an obstinate expression; unmoved. The ground he's standing on is more than a little shaky. The environmental, social and economic repercussions of failed talks for the U.S. and the world make an obdurate attitude most untimely, and morally reprehensible.

With the talks almost over and the UN/US deadlock only strengthening, the kids in this little drama are starting to throw their toys at each other.

You'll remember back in October a UN meeting was held in New York as a precursor to the Bali summit. We wrote at that time how George Bush, rather than joining discussions there, set up what was perceived by some as an apparent rival meeting in Washington. Many saw this as an attempt to undermine all the work that has gone before by nations that have, at least in rhetoric, projected a semblance of concern for what's happening in the world. The US federal government now shows that nothing has changed along these lines -- the US is determined to persevere with its own plans for 'voluntary emission reductions', which, as the business world who are pleading for a set standard that would enable them to work on a level playing field with their competitors knows, really means no emission reductions at all.

“There is a real sense of urgency now,” said Bjorn Stigson, President of the World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD) at the Bali Global Business Day last Monday. “ Regulators need to come up with a clear policy framework, which can then 'guide the investment decisions by businesses', and within which businesses can then 'do the right thing'.”

The event, the TRI HITA KARANA - Bali Global Business Day, sent a powerful message that business wanted a successful completion of a new global climate change framework beyond 2012. - WBCSD

The US delegates at the Bali summit are sticking to their guns in this plan for postponed-, or perhaps non-action, wanting no targets to be set in Bali, instead looking to promote their own agenda in a subsequent rival meeting in January 2008 - the so-called 'Major Economies Meeting' (note: in the fact sheet just linked to, George Bush gloats over US emissions reductions, something we spoke about a couple of weeks ago). But, since the US doesn't want to play nice at the Bali summit, members of European states are showing signs of losing all patience:

EU ministers are threatening to boycott a US-led climate summit next month over the Bush administration's opposition to firm cuts in greenhouse gas emissions.

... Several European ministers said if there was no agreement on targets, the EU would boycott a meeting next month of the "major economies" or "big emitters" group called by the White House.

... "No result in Bali means no major economies meeting, said Germany's Environment Minister Sigmar Gabriel.

"This is the clear position of the EU." - BBC

George W's position on global warming is untenable, but without US assent proposals for a post-2012 Kyoto framework will be effectively derailed. Yet, conversely, if Kyoto participants fail to show up for the US version of the Bali summit in January, although perhaps a little embarrassing, it will likely not be of such concern to a president that is already blasé on all things environmental. This will only infuriate participant nations further.

Many now long, more than ever before, for the end of George Bush's tenure, hoping that we can then make up lost ground in the battle against climate change. But with current moves, Bush may leave a lasting legacy behind that may be hard to undo:

Say what you like about the Bush's appointees, there can be no doubt that some of them -- at least judging from their work in Bali -- are geniuses at negotiation. Bush's second term as President expires in January, 2009, so in theory, decisions about international policy on global warming after that should be the responsibility of the person elected President in November, 2008. But Bush appointees in Bali have maneuvered themselves into a position that could freeze the current status quo, or something close to it, until as late as 2012. - UN Dispatch

Where is Al Gore in all this? After making what are regarded as historic statements at his Nobel Prize acceptance speech, Gore arrived at Bali yesterday - and, as expected, is outspoken on the current US position:

In a speech to the conference, Al Gore, the former vice president turned environmental campaigner and businessman, said Thursday the United States was “principally responsible” for blocking progress at the climate conference. - NY Times

Negotiators in Bali are in theory supposed to produce a "roadmap" to future agreement to succeed the Kyoto Protocol, which expires in 2012. What might emerge instead, however, is a roadmap to a confrontation of historic proportions, a rematch between George Bush -- or, at least, his surrogates -- and his opponent in the 2000 campaign for the Presidency, former Vice President Al Gore.

The two could not be further apart on an issue than they are on global warming. Bush is casual and sanguine, Gore urgent and demanding. Bush's emissaries to Bali, to their credit from their perspective, have thus far succeeded beyond all expectations in obstructing and slowing negotiations. - UN Dispatch

Without a regulatory system that puts a real price on the environmental costs associated with products and services, the current standing market-based incentives for industry competitors to undercut each other by externalising costs - heaping them on the environment and the poor - will persist. Unless we witness a miracle in the next day, the globalised race to the bottom looks set to continue for for the moment. Could Al Gore be that miracle?

Ten years ago, when the Kyoto protocol was still just a twinkle in politician's eyes, there was another deadlock in discussions:

Ten years ago negotiations reach a similar stage in Kyoto, when they seemed hopelessly bogged down. Then Gore, whose signature issues even then were the threats of global warming and stratospheric ozone depletion, arrived unexpectedly on a White House jet. In a matter of about 13 hours he forged the consensus that became the Kyoto Protocol. - UN Dispatch

In Bali, showing true leadership and pragmatic character traits, Gore urged negotiators to move on from the deadlock by ignoring the US altogether:

Mr Gore, who narrowly lost the presidential race to George W Bush in 2000, told a packed conference room on the Indonesian island that he was no longer in office and "not bound by diplomatic niceties".

"So I am going to speak an inconvenient truth," he said, referring to the climate film that won him an Oscar.

"My own country, the United States, is principally responsible for obstructing progress here in Bali. We all know that," he said to loud applause.

"But my country is not the only one that can take steps to ensure that we move forward from Bali with progress and with hope."

Environment ministers or their stand-ins from more than 180 countries have until tonight to agree a framework for tackling global warming past 2012, when pledges under the Kyoto Protocol expire.

Hailing growing local efforts in the United States to fight global warming, Mr Gore has urged the conference to be hopeful that whoever succeeds Mr Bush as president in 2009 will take action.

"You can feel anger and frustration, and direct it at the United States of America," he said.

"Or you can make a second choice, you can decide to move forward and do all of the difficult work that needs to be done and save a large open blank space in your document and put a footnote by it that says this document is incomplete."

"Over the next two years, the United States is going to be somewhere it isn't right now. You must anticipate that." - ABC News

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