The Main Event:
Let me introduce to you the biggest event of the year, the international juggernaut of climate change conferences, the 2007 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in Bali, Indonesia!
The Summit, taking place from December 3-14, will boast a who's who of international negotiation teams. There are expected to be 10,000 players (negotiators) from 198 teams (countries), along with 2500 foreign journalists. The ultimate goal of the Convention is for virtually the entire world to design and agree upon an international climate change agreement to replace the Kyoto Protocol after its tenure ends in 2012. However, as with any sporting event, the outcome won't be known until the final buzzer sounds. Welcome to the mixed-sports-metaphor overview of the Road to Bali.
Rules of the game:
The 11-day Summit will feature a range of events from talks and workshops to heavy negotiations. Agendas for the Convention include topics ranging from updating the Kyoto Protocol to the newest climate change science. Since the IPCC just shared the Nobel Prize with Al Gore, expect very little argument over the science itself. Rather, teams will be jockeying for position and influence over how to respond to the science. Some have viewed Kyoto as a major step in the right direction; others call it a complete failure. This Convention will provide a forum for teams to make their arguments and discuss how to move forward.
The pre-game preparations have begun. There is already talk about the need to pressure the U.S. delegation before the conference, and the U.S. is surely not the only country honing its strategy. Rather, every team is likely planning play-by-play tactics to put its own interests at the forefront of the Convention. Let's take a look at some of the teams to watch out for.
The Teams:
India and China - Two behemoth squads with enormous rosters and ever-increasing global influence. Expect to see these teams heavily shaping the playing field. Both countries have repeatedly expressed the opinion that, while climate change needs to be addressed, it should not come at the expense of their extremely rapid pace of economic development. India has reserved the third week of November for its negotiators to join together and hone their strategy. According to The Times of India, India's game plan will involve a supporting a self-imposed emissions cap with no penalties for non-compliance. India has prepared two teams of negotiators to play defense against the imposing offensive line of the European Union. Similarly, Chinese negotiator Ronglai Zhong has stated that developing countries should reduce emissions "to the best of their ability and in keeping with their particular conditions" (International Herald Tribune). China has recently come under fire for building coal plant after coal plant, having built 114,000 Megawatts of coal generating capacity just last year (New York Times).
Indonesia - Host team. Think of college football Bowl Games. Two big-name teams play, but not on their own turf. The hosts themselves may not be the most important teams, but they were chosen for a reason. The Jakarta Post reports that the President of Indonesia will move to Bali during the conference, and the country has already milked its temporary climate celebrity status by hosting a pre-summit meeting of about 40 nations to prepare for the main event.
European Union - With almost a decade of consecutive championship rings for taking the strongest action against climate change, expect the EU to focus on its offense. European countries will push hard for an aggressive accord for post-2012. The European Union has been the biggest and most active participant in Kyoto, and many European nations are taking outside action to reduce their own impact on global climate change. EU president José Manuel Durão Barroso stated the EU's aggressive goal: "I am determined that the EU will reduce its greenhouse gas emissions to at least 20% below 1990 levels by 2020." He even expressed openness to more aggressive targets (Scoop Independent News).
United States - Defensive specialists-having failed to ratify the Kyoto Protocol and with a president that only recently began to address climate change at all, the United States has been honing its defensive prowess on the climate change field for years. 
It was only weeks ago that the U.S. officially agreed to participate in the Bali talks after harsh offensive pressure from European Countries (China View). However, there are glimpses of optimism among the ranks. Paula Dobriansky, Under Secretary of State for Democracy and Global Affairs, stated "I would say consensus…emerged around 2009" as a deadline for a new, post-Kyoto deal. Note: 2009 is the year Bush steps down.
Australia - Also defensive specialists. According to the Sydney Morning Herald, Australia's influence will be limited by its failure to ratify the Kyoto Protocol.
Iran - A surprising participant in the main event. Imagine a 16th-seed in the final four of the NCAA basketball tournament. Iran confirmed in late October that it will attend the Convention. The head of the Air Pollution Office of Iran's Department of Environment stated that he hopes to "defend our rights and those of other developing countries," since developed countries are responsible for climate change (PressTV)
And over 150 other countries, each with their own interests and plans for the Summit.
Free Agents:
Ban Ki-Moon, Secretary-General of the United Nations-Referee-has been called a "harmoniser," and was chosen in large part because of his excellent diplomacy. But this ref has a stake in the game. Mr. Ban plans to make a strong call to action in Bali, pushing nations to set aside their own self-interests for the sake of global preservation (The Economist). To drum up excitement and interest, 
Mr. Ban is spending this preseason making the rounds in picturesque locations that are already being affected by climate change: Patagonia, Antarctica, and Brazil.
Al Gore - The Convention's designated rockstar. He just won an extremely elusive lifetime high-returns contract (the Nobel Prize)-but can he parlay his increasing support into real action?
Yvo de Boer, Secretary General of the UNFCCC & League commissioner - De Boer has been repeatedly stressing the importance of Bali's summit, saying that "negotiators are ready to begin serious negotiations in Bali to develop a post-2012 climate change regime." (AFP). He wants the league to be known as a success, and he'll do everything in his power to make it happen. De Boer's ultimate goal is for the Bali conference to "get the process going" toward a new climate change regime (Environmental News Network).
Betting on the Main Event:
What will be the result of Bali? Here are some potential outcomes:
- Offensive teams dominate-A new global climate deal to take effect after the Kyoto Protocol ends in 2012 is hammered out in Bali and adopted by the end of 2009. Called the Bali Declaration, it is ratified by all countries involved, and finally a true international accord on climate change is reached.
- Offense wins, but it's a close game-an accord is reached, but because of pressure from developing countries, the U.S., and Australia, the emissions reductions have "soft" targets and aren't aggressive.
- Offense wins, but in 3rd overtime-An accord is agreed upon, but not until the Kyoto Protocol has almost expired (post-2010). The new regime has very little time to be organized before taking effect, and its impact is smaller as a result.
- Defense wins-negotiations abound, but pressures from high-emitting and/or rapidly developing countries keep any agreement from being reached. Or, alternately, an agreement is reached but, similarly to the Kyoto Protocol, some of the biggest polluters refuse to ratify it.
Odds-makers are poring over historical data and analyzing the matchups to predict the most likely results, but we need your help! What do you think will come out of Bali? Tell us by responding to the survey at right.
